Hearty words Ahead

I believe China will win the 2019 Conoravirus eventually this year, hope everything goes well in the future. and apart from this, another thing regarding myself privately, is in memory of Kobe BRYANT, a basketball  legend.

This Article is for Kobe Bryant, my idol, I know God just call him for basketball playing in heaven in 2020. Thank you Kobe, your spirits excites me ahead and Iknow your spirits is making me ahead in the career and life. Originally I wannato write down this article in 27th, Jan, 2020, but unfortunately, with 2019Conoravirus, delaying till today.

He will know one fan will try his best to have better RAMS and security design andprotection against hazardous events and life-threatening in automotive orhelicopter, even for aeroplane which will kill life.

[Author]

Renhong WENG, a fans of Kobe in China.

I had paid attention to Basketball since 2004, fans of Kobe Bryant. He might notknow me in China supporting them silently for so long time, but when in 4am of27th, Jan, 2020, I see news from website that Kobe had death from onehelicopter events, then never fall asleep again, with tears down, just inmemory of Kobe and myself growing up from 2004 and present, a long journey.With faith and sadness, I dedicated myself to learn helicopter or aeroplanesafety more than automotive more, protecting more people in the world usingintelligent transportation system as my dream.

First: aerial application safety status

From USHST report, their aerial application ratios increasing rapidly:

Within detail usage, the personal/private or instructional/training play vital factorsin the aerial application:

Here the helicopter usually is of personal/private aerial application, and 2 maincontributing factors to helicopter safety related events are loss of controland controlled flight into terrain:

Second:Accident description

On 26th, JAN, 2020, at 0945 Pacific standard time, Sikorsky S-76B helicopter, N72EX, collided with hilly terrain near the city of Calabasas, California. Thepilot and eight passengers were fatally injured, and the helicopter wasdestroyed by impact forces and fire, including Kobe BRYANT and his daughter Gigi BRYANT.

based on NTSB research, they discover following useful information:

The helicopter was not equipped with a flight data recorder or cockpit voice recorder but equipped with a four-axis automatic flight control system, electronic flight instrument system, radio altimeter, and ADS-B transponder. Aswell, it was equipped with a flight management system (FMS), we can directly regardthis helicopter as Unmanned Aircraft System operation, driving by the pilot,control model can be set as following:

Third: Specific Operation Risk Assessment in UAS

Specific Operation Risk Assessment (SORA) is the JARUS consensus vision on how to safelycreate, evaluate and conduct an Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operation.

For the event of Kobe involved, we can analysis using bow-tie model:

1. Harmidentification

• Fatal injuries to third parties on the ground

• Fatal injuries to third parties in the air

• Damage to critical infrastructure

2.Hazard identification

UAS operation out of control, leading to UAS crashing into ground rapidily, andfire, all pilot and passengers death.

3. Identification of generic threats

source from SORA guide:

Forth: SORA process

Step0: initial evaluation

UAS cannot be recognized by local authority or government as standard scenario ornormal way, which seems the weather issue foggy, and as well mis-judgement ofoperation with the wireless communication with base station.

Step1: ConOps description

we trace back to control structure we had set up before, and set up harm barriers as following:

as well, we also have the threat barrier to anti-against:

Step2:Determination of the initial UAS Ground Risk Class

The last UAS seen was at 1200 feet mean seal level and approximately 400 feetsouthwest of the accident site, within that moment, the UAS is in descending,and orientation in southwest. One extra detail is that when in the accident,the automated surface observing sysetm in ATC at the spot, located about 11nautical miles east-northeast of the accident site at an elevation of about 800feet, reported a calm wind, visibility of 2.5 statute miles in haze andovercast ceiling of 1100 feet above ground level.

Let's back to that scene and see detail the motion process:

Near the crashing, the UAS elevates at 800 feet

From above information and analysis, we can see the UAS pilot didnot have sufficienteyesight due to haze, and the haze seeing capability is 2miles, less thanitself length of 2.5miles, exactly the pilot didnot have sufficient from myunderstanding, and analysis, UAS energy higher than 1084 kJ, so that VisualLine of Sight(VLOS) cannot detect:

in Kobe's helicopter situation, GRC=6

Step3: Harm barriers and GRC adaptation

unfortunately, Kobe's helicopter didnot have emergency response plan with such sudden condition, and no rescue team timely to rescue, so it is no harm barriers herefor GRC reduction.

Step4: Lethality determination

outcome is the whole UAS break down, 0% life survival, great damage to both helicopter and human being internally.

Lethality=High

Step5: Specific Assurance and Integrity Levels (SAIL)

for ground risk, we can directly judged from following table:

Step6: Determination of the Airspace Encounter Category (AEC)

The airspace encounter category (AEC) is a grouping of airspace types that bestreflect perceived levels of collision risk. Kobe's helicopter finally inaccident spot is above 3286 feet msl, so the AEC shall be following:

AEC=11

Step7: Initial assessment of the Air-Risk Class

The ARC is a qualitative classification of the rate at which a UAS would encounter a manned aircraft in typical generalized civil airspace, the classification will be following:

1. UAS>500ft

2. Neighboring environment is rural environment

we judged the ARC into following classification

ARC=3

ARC3 is generally defined as airspace where the risk of collision between a UAS and manned aircraft is low to moderate. This collision risk class requires somemore collision mitigation than Class 2 but less than Class 4. The amount ofmitigations and performance level of those mitigations will be low to moderate.

Step8:Establish Strategic Mitigations

inorder to comply with following requirements, we have to derive out mitigation methods towards this issue:

we using the bow-tie model to derive out:

For above suggestions, i have approve them into in high level of robustness.

After strategic mitigation, ARC=3, SAIL=IV

Step9:Assess Required Level of Tactical Mitigation

Tactical Mitigations are applied to meet residual risk of the ARC. from following table, we can judge the Tactical Mitigation Performance Requirements shall be in medium performance.

Step10: Identification of recommended threat barriers

In order to improve the safety properties of UAS, we can have following suggestions

O is Optional, L is recommended with Low robustness, M is recommended with Mediumrobustness, H is recommended with High robustness.

Final:conclusion

Thanks for your reading this long article, and we have analyzed some motion of Kobe'shelicopter crash events, and derive some safety measures and avoidance measuresusing SORA model, and derive the eetail requirements in each phase, with thestandard need.

In the future, hope the helicopter will be safer and all of us will share better world by intelligent transport system, that day will come in!

[Reference]

• Aircraft Accident Investigative Update from NTSB

• COMPARATIVE REPORT from USHTB

• JARUS guideline on SORA